The Official Offshore Betting Guide

Why the Kentucky Derby will Pay out Big-time in 2017 with Huge Amounts

Why the Kentucky Derby —> Will Pay Big in 2017

One of the things that makes the Kentucky Derby so great is the opportunity for huge payoffs and winnings.

Small payoffs the last two years:

The last three years in the Derby, we’ve seen dominant favorites that won in classy style, which kept payoffs down.  And in the last two years, we’ve seen logical top contenders finish in second and third keeping the exacta and trifecta payoffs incredibly low compared to prior years.

But with a 20-horse field, and an open race, note that even with California Chrome winning in 2014, the Exacta and Trifecta were juicy due to the fact that 37-1 Commanding Curve ran second.



A Longer priced favorite means Guaranteed Bigger Payoffs in 2017 

In Kentucky Derby 2017, we can guarantee that the exacta and trifecta will pay greater than in the previous two years.  Why?  Because this year we will be starting with a much higher-priced favorite.

Mathematically, a 5-1 or 6-1 favorite will mean a higher win price, a higher exacta price and a higher trifecta than the last two years.

The favorite could be 5-1 or 6-1, even higher!

In this year’s Kentucky Derby, there is no standout favorite.  Consider the Kentucky Derby Odds put together by the various bookmakers .  Note how there is no standout favorite like Nyquist at 2-1 or California Chrome at 5-2.  In fact, there is no horse listed at lower than 6-1!  And this seems to be how other handicappers see the race as well, meaning the eventual favorite could be 5-1 or 6-1.

Adding even more confusion, it’s hard to predict who the favorite will even be at this point.  We may not know that until a couple hours before the race.

High-priced favorites have a lower chance of success

– No favorites won from 1980 to 1999

– From 2000 to 2016, favorites won 8 of 17 races (47%)

– The favorite has won 4 years in a row

But what is also significant is this fact:
– Since 1980, favorites at 3-1 or higher have won only 3 of 15 races (20%)
As you would expect, lukewarm favorites don’t perform as well as standout ones do.  But 20% winning favorites is much less than the 47% in recent years.
In addition, the second priced favorite has won only 3 of the last 27 runnings, for a weak 11.1%.
Finally, here is a look at how high-priced favorites of 5-1 or higher performed in the Derby since 1980.
Conclusion:  Higher-priced favorites have a much lower chance of success, and so do their counterparts, the second choice in the wagering.

High-priced favorites lead to chaos races & big payouts 

If we look at the history of those high-priced favorite Kentucky Derby races, look how they all produced boxcar payoffs.

Even in the three cases where the favorite (Orb, 2013) or second-favorite (Super Saver, 2010 and Barbaro, 2006) won, the payoffs were still huge.  In 2013, even with the favorite winning and the second-favorite Revolutionary running third, the payoffs were massive due to Golden Soul running second at 34-1.

Conclusion:  High-priced favorites and wide-open fields lead to massive payoffs.

Kentucky Derby payoff history

If we dig in a little further, we can see the different runners that rounded out the Trifecta and Superfecta these years.

Kentucky Derby Longshot payouts

Even when there is no 20-1 or 30-1 longshot present, like in 2010 where the 1-2-3 finishers were 8-1, 11-1 and 12-1, the trifecta payoff was a juicy $2,337.  The reason for this is there are no low-priced favorites to suppress the payoffs.  In races with high-priced favorites, they don’t exist!

Finally, when we look at the Kentucky Derby Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts over the last 11 years, we can see the correlation between the high-priced favorites and big payoffs!

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Superfecta Payouts 2006-2016
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